S&P futures slumped into the red, following a drop in European stocks while Asian shares traded mixed in a subdued day of trading thanks to Thanksgiving holiday; the big moves were in FX where the pound jumped, the euro strengthened and the dollar slumped after a draft deal on post-Brexit ties was tentatively agreed
US cash markets may be closed, but futures are open, and overnight the Emini slumped to Wednesday's session lows before rebounding modestly.
Europe’s bourses dropped back into the red on Thursday as investor worries mounted about slowing global growth in the face of rising U.S. interest rates and trade tensions. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped as much as 0.9%, giving up much of Wednesday’s gains as almost every sector fell, led by basic resources and banking shares. The biggest decliners include BAT -1.9%, Total -1.1%, HSBC -1%, AstraZeneca -1.1%, although trading volumes were lethargic. Italy was under pressure in both stock and bond markets as sparring resumed over its budget plans. Some disappointing big-name earnings added to the gloom. Europe’s tech sector lost another 1.2 percent
, but it wasn’t the worst performer. Banks were 1.6 percent weaker and mining companies and other resources firms were down nearly 2 percent and approaching a one-month low, reflecting the bitter Sino-U.S. trade war, encouraging investors to take money off the table before U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, meet in Argentina next week.
The pound soared, rising sharply above 1.29 and gilts fell as a draft Brexit deal pointing to deep ties between the U.K. and European Union as well as a solution to the Irish border question was agreed at a “political level,” according to the EU.
Enthusiasm was dented however after Reutrers reproted that Spain will vote against the current Brexit draft proposal because of a lack of clarity on Gibraltar.
Earlier, Asian indexes swung between gains and losses before turning higher, with Japanese stocks getting an end-of-session boost on a report about a possible government rebate. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan had ended little changed after recovering from an initial wobble. The index has managed to hold up so far in November after three straight monthly declines, but is on track for its worst annual performance since 2011. Japan’s Nikkei had finished almost 0.7 percent higher but Chinese shares closed 0.4 percent in the red.
“Investors are still wary about whether they’ll see further lows, given none of the issues that drove the recent correction have dissipated,” said Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP.
Trading volumes in the region were also depressed. Singapore became the latest to warn about the potential impact on Thursday. The city state is considered as a bellwether for international trade.
“Risks in the global economy are tilted to the downside,” said Loh Khum Yean, Singapore’s permanent secretary for trade and industry.
Elsewhere, Bitcoin steadied, emerging-market assets were broadly stable and gold nudged upward. Treasuries didn’t trade because of the U.S. holiday. In commodities, China-sensitive metals like copper fell and oil prices reversed early gains, although they were still above one-year lows touched earlier this week. U.S. crude futures were last down 8 cents at $54.55 a barrel after hitting a one-year low of $52.77 on Tuesday. Brent eased 15 cents to $63.33, off Tuesday’s low of $61.71.
The US is closed today for Thanksgiving holiday. Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
- E.U., U.K. see free-trade area and deep regulatory cooperation; state "determination" to replace backstop: Draft
- U.K. and European negotiators are working through the night to hammer out the final part of the Brexit deal as Theresa May fights to keep a crunch summit on Sunday on track. After meeting EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker Wednesday, PM Theresa May announced that she will return to Brussels for last minute talks on Saturday, just a day before EU leaders are due to sign off on the deal. That wasn’t expected: Brexit update
- Technology stocks rose Wednesday, posting a partial rebound from a bruising three-day decline, though analysts said further volatility and losses are likely
- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues are likely to turn more wary about marching interest rates higher after delivering a widely anticipated quarter percentage-point increase in December. Fed may pause cycle of rate hikes as early as spring: MNI
- The Republican chairman of the U.S. Senate committee overseeing trade rebuffed a call by a dozen GOP senators to vote on a revised a U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade agreement this year, a move that likely will doom their effort
- U.S. consumers will be hit hard if President Donald Trump goes ahead with tariffs on the remaining imports from China, worth about $260 billion in 2017. That’s because China has an "exceptionally large" market share in goods that have so far escaped the tariffs, according to Deutsche Bank AG. They note that 93 percent of U.S. laptop imports came from China in 2017 while 80 percent of mobile phone imports came from China
- Italy PM Conte confident spread will narrow; acting responsibly on budget; Italy’s Di Maio sees margins for dialogue with EU; infringement procedure would be unfair; Salvini/Di Maio say won’t change a comma on budget: Repubblica
- BTP Italia total placement closed at EU2.16b: Treasury
- WSJ: Apple to offer Japan carriers discount to up iPhone XR sales
Happy Thanksgiving to all our US readers. Apparently Americans will consume up to 4,500 calories each over the course of today, although I read that us Brits consume around 7,000 on Xmas Day so our friends stateside are lightweights. For those working in financial markets both these numbers might be eclipsed this year after the stresses of the last couple of weeks. However, ahead of the holiday, there were some healthier markets yesterday to raise a glass to. In addition to that, we ran the numbers yesterday and the Friday after Thanksgiving has seen a ratio of positive to negative days for the S&P 500 of just under 2 to 1. This long-term daily average is 1.13 to 1.
Anyway, back to the present, where the rout which plagued just about every risk asset on Tuesday reversed to some degree yesterday with the NASDAQ (+0.92%), S&P 500 (+0.31%) and NYSE FANG (+0.51%) all closing higher. These indexes pared their peak intraday gains (S&P 500 up just over 1% at highs) though amid thin afternoon liquidity ahead of today's US holiday. The DOW closed flat, while in Europe the STOXX 600 (+1.14%) and DAX (+1.61%) both rallied before the US dipped after Europe went home. HY spreads in the US and Europe were both around -7bps tighter, and WTI and Brent rallied +1.97% and +1.34% respectively. The climb for oil was fairly steady during the day helped partly by a drop in the latest API inventories data and also President Trump’s early morning tweet in which he thanked Saudi Arabia for lower oil prices. Inventories data out of the EIA later in the session didn’t really move the dial.
There were seemingly a few reasons for the turn in sentiment. One was the decent rally for BTPs, where two- and 10-year yields fell -23.3bps and -14.6bps respectively, for their best day in over a month. As expected, the European Commission rejected the latest Italian draft 2019 plan, with Commissioner Moscovici warning against Italy adopting free-rider behaviour in comments with the press. The EC confirmed that they are not yet opening the EDP but suggested that they see this as the path which is opening ahead. Moscovici confirmed yesterday that Italy will have two weeks to answer queries put forward by the EC. After that, the EC will have to make the decision whether or not to recommend opening an EDP to the Eurogroup. The hope for Italy might be that Moscovici sounded willing to keep a dialogue open, rather than shutting the door completely. Our economists rightly noted that the ball is now back with Italy. On that, Deputy PM Salvini initially said yesterday that the Government is open to a dialogue on spending revisions but wouldn’t stretch to discussing the budget deficit or pension reform. A potential sign of compromise appeared to be enough for the market though with the FTSE MIB also climbing +1.41% and an index of Italian banks up +2.35%, both snapping a five-day losing run.
Also attracting some interest yesterday was an MNI article quoting ‘senior Fed sources’ as suggesting that the Fed is considering a pause in hiking rates and may also consider ending its tightening cycle as soon as spring next year. The article went on to say that Fed officials appear to be converging around 3% for the neutral rate and that policymakers see inflation as peaking around the current 2% level before falling lower. A couple of comments are worth making on this. The first is that MNI isn’t seen as the most reliable source for Fed news, and the second is that this story broadly repeats commentary we have already heard from Clarida and Powell in recent days. So not particularly groundbreaking in our view. Treasuries didn’t move much on the article and 10y yields ended flat, while two-year yields sold off +1.0bps by the close of play and the Dollar index edged down -0.11%.
Overnight Asian markets are mixed in thin trading due to today’s Thanksgiving holiday in the US and a holiday in Japan tomorrow. The Nikkei (+0.61%) and Hang Seng (+0.06%) are up while the Shanghai Comp (-0.55%) and Kospi (-0.39%) are down. Elsewhere, crude oil prices both WTI and Brent are down c. -0.35% this morning. On the data front, Japan’s October CPI printed in line with consensus at +1.4% yoy and core at +1.0% yoy while core-core CPI stood at +0.4% yoy.
Yesterday’s Brexit newsflow was fairly thin on the ground again, though Prime Minister May did meet with EU Commission President Juncker in Brussels. The two leaders made "good progress" according to a spokesman. More talks are planned for Saturday which is cutting it fine for Sunday’s summit, especially with some reports (BBC) suggesting that Friday is the key deadline to have things ready for the summit. Negotiators are working through the night to hammer out more on the agreement. Earlier in the session Gilt yields rose +1.3bps and the pound traded -0.09% weaker, as markets remain in a holding pattern ahead of the EU summit and the eventual UK Parliament vote, which is due sometime over next few weeks.
Meanwhile, the latest in the trade debate was the announcement by the WTO yesterday that they intend to launch a dispute investigation into the US allegations about China continuing a state-backed campaign of IP and technology theft. A decision is expected next year. In Germany Economy Minister Altmaier also announced that Germany planned to increase regulatory barriers to foreign investors by the end of this year, in effect making it harder for Chinese companies to launch takeovers of German companies. All this before the G20 meeting in just over a week now which will include a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping on the sidelines. On that the FT reported yesterday that the draft communique made no explicit comment on fighting protectionism – language which has in essence been a mainstay of the statement since 2008.
The OECD released updated macroeconomic forecasts yesterday, and revised down its global growth projection for 2019 -0.4pp to 3.5% from the last May edition. The forecast for euro area growth was revised down -0.3pp to 1.8%, the US down -0.1pp to 2.7%, and China down -0.1pp to 6.3%. In their first projections for 2020, the OECD expects global growth to remain steady as faster growth in most EMs balances a further slowdown in developed markets and China.
It was a busy day for US economic data ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, headlined by somewhat soft durable goods orders which fell -4.4% mom, the sharpest drop in over a year. Durables ex-transportation were soft as well, up +0.1% mom versus the expected +0.4%. Core capital goods orders were flat after a revised -0.5% mom drop in September. Our economists had highlighted their expectations for capex to slow over the medium term, so this data does not change their baseline forecasts. Separately, initial jobless claims ticked higher to 224,000 from 216,000 last week, which presents some downside risks to the November nonfarm payrolls report due two weeks from Friday. Finally, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index moderated slightly to 97.5, though 5-10 year inflation expectations ticked up to 2.6% from 2.4%, matching their highest level since March 2016.
As far as the day ahead is concerned, with it being a holiday in the US and markets subsequently closed, we’re extremely sparse on data releases with November confidence indicators in France and the November consumer confidence print for the Euro Area the only readings of note. That being said it’s a packed day for the ECB with Angeloni, Weidmann, Knot, Visco and Mersch all due to speak. The ECB’s October meeting minutes are also out today with Italian Finance Minister Tria due to face questions in the Upper House this afternoon.The BoE’s Saunders then speaks tonight.
Stocks in Europe faded early gains and S&P futures fell after a mixed session in Asia as chip stocks were taken to the woodshed on poor guidance from Nvidia and Applied Materials sparked fears that the chip bull run is over, while investors wondered whether China and America can de-escalate their trade war after mixed signals by US officials just days before the G-20 summit.
The euro failed to rebound while the sterling halted its biggest drop in 2 years after some of the most dramatic 24 hours yet in the Brexit process and another turbulent week for world markets. With reports of a UK leadership coup still rife and fear that the country could crash out of the EU without an agreement, cable struggled to rise above $1.28.
Meanwhile traders around the world were waiting for an outcome from the ongoing Brexit saga: “If and when a vote on the withdrawal agreement occurs is uncertain. Whether the withdrawal bill is passed by both houses of Parliament is uncertain,” Joseph Capurso, a senior currency strategist at CBA, said in a note. “Whether the Prime Minister resigns or is challenged for the leadership is uncertain. And, whether there is a second referendum and/or an election is uncertain.”
Fears over political turmoil in the UK and Italy dragged Europe's Stoxx 600 back into the red, set for its first weekly drop in three, trimming Friday’s gain as AstraZeneca's drop weighed on the gauge after a cancer-drug setback while telecom names were outperforming. Utilities started the session lower in the wake of yesterday’s ECJ decision which deemed the UK’s scheme for ensuring power supplies during the winter months as a violation of state aid rules. Other individual movers include Vivendi (+4.2%) sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 after posting impressive Q3 sales metrics and announcing a potential sale of part of their Universal Music Group division. Elsewhere, AstraZeneca (-2.3%) and Shire (-1.3%) have been seen lower throughout the session after both posting disappointing drug updates.
Not helping sentiment, ECB head Mario Draghi said the bank still plans to dial back its stimulus at the end of the year, but acknowledged the economy had hit a soft patch and inflation may rise more slowly than expected
. “If firms start to become more uncertain about the growth and inflation outlook, the squeeze on margins could prove more persistent,” Draghi told a conference.
Earlier in the day, Asian shares ended the session in the red (MSCI Asia -0.2% to 151.52), led lower by declines in Japan, even as China and Hong Kong rose after initial reports the United States might pause further China tariffs were denied by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross who damped hopes of any imminent trade deal with China. The Nikkei fell 0.6% pressured by a drop in the USDJPY after China Mofcom began an investigation into alleged dumping of machine tools by Japanese firms. The Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) swung between gains and losses after continued liquidity inaction by the PBoC which skipped Reverse Repos for a 16th consecutive occasion.
S&P futures were hit on fresh slowdown concerns, this time out of the semiconductochip space, after Nvidia gave a dire sales forecast, projecting a 20% drop in revenue while a disappointing outlook from Applied Materials indicated the chip industry is holding off on expansion plans
in the face of a murky outlook for electronics demand. The chipmaking sector saw another bout of selling in Asia, wiping at least $11.2 billion in market value amid signals that demand for servers, personal computers and mobile is falling.
Also falling after hours were shares of AMD and Intel, dragging Nasdaq futures lower.
"It started with Apple, then Nvidia ... Since performances of these companies set the tone for the global tech and chip industries, related Japanese stocks will likely be sluggish for a while,” said Takatoshi Itoshima, a strategist at Pictet Asset Management.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after Fed Chairman Powell flagged his concern over potential headwinds for the U.S. economy, while the pound staged a modest rebound on reports that some pro-Brexit ministers decided to stay in their governmental posts. The pound gained as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May defied demands to quit and amid reports her environment secretary wouldn’t resign, following the resignation of several ministers Thursday. The yen rallied as trade stress simmered, with investors trying to gauge whether China and the U.S. can de-escalate their dispute.
Also under water was the cryptocurrency Bitcoin, which hit a one-year trough overnight. It had tumbled 10 percent early in the week when support at $6,000 gave way. It was last changing hands at $5,500 on the Bitstamp platform.
Treasuries were steady while 10-year yields on German bonds were set for their biggest weekly fall in three weeks, in a sign that the Brexit uncertainty and worries about Italy’s finances, continued to support demand. Italian bonds edged higher even as European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said in an interview with Il Sole 24 Ore that the country’s government was openly defying EU budget rules.
Emerging-market currencies consolidated recent gains while oil prices extended their rebound.
Oil prices rose, helped by a decline in U.S. fuel stockpiles and the possibility of a cut in OPEC output. Brent (+1.3%) and WTI (+1.1%) are both in the green and continuing their rebound seen yesterday with WTI hovering around USD 57.00bbl. Energy newsflow remains light, post-yesterday's DoE report, however, Iraq’s North Oil Co. have announced that they have resumed Kiruk oil exports heading towards the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Looking ahead, the main highlight on the calendar will be the Baker Hughes rig count. Elsewhere, natural gas futures are relatively steady after their 19% decline yesterday which came in the wake of a 20% increase the day before.
In geopolitical news, US Republican and Democrat Senators filed a bipartisan bill seeking to suspend arms sales to Saudi Arabia in response to war in Yemen and killing of journalist. North Korean Leader Kim inspected test of new high-tech tactical weapons, according to Yonhap citing North Korean state media
Today's data include October industrial production and capacity utilization. Viacom is among companies reporting earnings Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- S&P500 futures down 0.3% to 2,725.25
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.01% to 358.38
- MXAP down 0.2% to 151.52
- MXAPJ up 0.2% to 486.84
- Nikkei down 0.6% to 21,680.34
- Topix down 0.6% to 1,629.30
- Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 26,183.53
- Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 2,679.11
- Sensex up 0.5% to 35,446.11
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,730.55
- Kospi up 0.2% to 2,092.40
- Brent futures up 1.2% to $67.41/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,216.36
- U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.93
- German 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 0.368%
- Euro up 0.2% to $1.1346
- Italian 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 3.12%
- Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 1.617%
Asia-Pac stocks traded indecisively as the region lacked fresh catalysts
- Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has laid out a scenario for a pause in the central bank’s interest-rate hiking campaign sometime next year by highlighting potential headwinds to the U.S. economy.
- British Prime Minister Theresa May is defying demands to quit as she battles to keep control of her fractious government long enough to deliver a Brexit deal that’s drawn ire from across the political spectrum.
- Pro-Brexit ministers Michael Gove, Liam Fox, Chris Grayling, Penny Mordaunt and Andrea Leadsom have decided together not to quit the government, Times reporter Tim Shipman said on Twitter.
- ECB’s Draghi sees no reason for expansion to come to abrupt end, he said at an event in Frankfurt, Germany.
- PG&ECorp. rallied as much as 49 percent in extended trading Thursday after the head of the California Public Utilities Commission said he can’t imagine allowing the state’s largest utility to go into bankruptcy as it faces billions of dollars in potential liability from deadly wildfires
- Deutsche Bank AG and Bank of America Corp. have been contacted by U.S. criminal investigators for information about transactions they handled for a small bank branch in Estonia that’s at the center of one of the biggest money-laundering investigations in history, according to two people familiar with the matter.
and as uncertainty regarding Brexit and US-China trade played on investor’s minds. ASX 200 (-0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.6%) were choppy with outperformance of tech and mining names in Australia overshadowed by a lacklustre broader market, while the Japanese benchmark was subdued by mild flows into the JPY and after China Mofcom began an investigation into alleged dumping of machine tools by Japanese firms. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) swung between gains and losses after continued liquidity inaction by the PBoC which skipped OMOs for a 16th consecutive occasion, while participants were also tentative amid ongoing trade uncertainty after conflicting reports regarding the next round of China tariffs being placed on hold which USTR Lighthizer later denied. Finally, 10yr JGBs were mildly higher with prices underpinned amid an indecisive tone seen in stocks and with the BoJ also present in the market for JPY 680bln of JGBs in the belly to super-long end. Top Asian News
- China’s Kindergarten Crackdown Is the Latest Disaster for Stocks - Modi Is Said to Enlist Tata for Jet Airways Rescue Ahead of Vote - Philippines Shuts 3 Miners, Suspends 9 Others After Review - Indian Central Bank Board to Discuss Surplus Funds Transfer European equities trade relatively flat
(Eurostoxx 50 +0.2%) in the wake of mixed trade headlines overnight for the US and China. Performance across European indices is relatively equal whilst focus once again falls on the FTSE 100 (U/C) which remains at the whim of Brexit-inspired fluctuations in the GBP. Once again, potential upside for the index is being capped by losses in domestically focused banking names (RBS -3.0%, Lloyds -2.1%) as Brexit uncertainty continues to dampen investor sentiment. In terms of sector specifics, most sectors are trading higher with mild outperformance seen in telecom names. Utilities started the session lower in the wake of yesterday’s ECJ decision which deemed the UK’s scheme for ensuring power supplies during the winter months as a violation of state aid rules. Other individual movers include Vivendi (+4.2%) sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 after posting impressive Q3 sales metrics and announcing a potential sale of part of their Universal Music Group division. Elsewhere, AstraZeneca (-2.3%) and Shire (-1.3%) have been seen lower throughout the session after both posting disappointing drug updates. Top European News
- Finnish Software Company Basware Is Said to Explore Sale
- Vauxhall Owner Said to Weigh Closing a Factory Post-Brexit
- Amid Brexit Gloom, Deutsche Bank Sees Frankfurt as Next London
- Nyrstar Surges on Hopes Over Trafigura Refinancing Talks
- GBP- The Pound is not the biggest net mover for a change, but still one of the most volatile and vulnerable as Cable pivots 1.2800 and EuGbp trades between 0.8850-80. The fall-out from Wednesday’s Cabinet meeting continues as UK PM May strives to sell the Brexit draft, but facing a rising rebellion within the Conservative Party that appears to have reached the critical mass required to trigger a no confidence vote. However, some positive news with a key Minister deciding not to follow others out of the Government, as Gove opts to stay rather than go. In terms of technical impulses, Cable is holding above yesterday’s 1.2725 low, ahead of chart support around 1.2710-00 that protects mtd and ytd troughs at 1.2696 and 1.2662 respectively, while near term resistance is seen around 1.2836 before 1.2850, but 1 bn option expiries at 1.2800 could well exert more influence into the NY cut. For EuGbp, several MAs form support blow 0.8850 and the 100 DMA at 0.8910 may hamper further gains if0.8900 is breached.
- JPY- Maintaining a firm underlying safe-haven bid as broad risk sentiment remains fragile and China is reportedly investigating machine dumping by Japan – Usd/Jpy near the bottom of a 113.20-65 range.
- EUCAD/CHF- All narrowly mixed vs the Greenback, with the single currency keeping afloat of 1.1300 and eyeing a Fib at 1.1358, while the Loonie is holding recent recovery gains through 1.3200 as oil prices continue their rebound and the Franc meanders between 1.0075-50 vs 1.1000+ earlier this week when the broad Dollar and DXY were in the ascendency (index well above 97.000 vs just below the figure presently).
- EM- The Lira is off best levels, but still relatively bid after reports that the US could Turkish cleric Gulen in an attempt to assuage President Erdogan to adopt a less aggressive stance against Saudi Arabia over the Khashoggi killing. Usd/Try now near the middle of a 5.3240-3940 band.
gold (+0.2%) is trading relatively flat after hitting new weekly highs of USD 1218.39/oz earlier in the session; following uneventful overnight trade. Elsewhere, Shanghai Zinc prices have risen due to London Metal Exchange stockpiles falling to decade-low levels. Brent (+1.3%) and WTI (+1.1%) are both in the green and continuing their rebound seen yesterday with WTI hovering around USD 57.00bbl. Energy newsflow remains light, post-yesterday's DoE report, however, Iraq’s North Oil Co. have announced that they have resumed Kiruk oil exports heading towards the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Looking ahead, the main highlight on the calendar will be the Baker Hughes rig count. Elsewhere, natural gas futures are relatively steady after their 19% decline yesterday which came in the wake of a 20% increase the day before. US Event Calendar
- 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%; Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
- 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 11, prior 8
- 4pm: Total Net TIC Flows, prior $108.2b, Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $131.8b
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